The state of things, six months before the election

A pair of articles in the Washington Post this morning sums up the state of things, six months before the election, very nicely: the President's support has eroded badly even among the vaunted conservative "base," but luckily for the GOP, the Democrats seem to be in no danger of getting their act together in order to exploit the situation:

Disaffection over spending and immigration have caused conservatives to take flight from President Bush and the Republican Congress at a rapid pace in recent weeks, sending Bush's approval ratings to record lows and presenting a new threat to the GOP's 12-year reign on Capitol Hill, according to White House officials, lawmakers and new polling data.

Bush and Congress have suffered a decline in support from almost every part of the conservative coalition over the past year, a trend that has accelerated with alarming implications for Bush's governing strategy.

Bush, GOP Congress Losing Core Supporters (Washington Post, May 11, 2006)

However:

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean and the leader of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have clashed angrily in recent days in a dispute about how the party should spend its money in advance of this fall's midterm elections.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.), who is leading the party's effort to regain majority status in the House, stormed out of Dean's office several days ago leaving a trail of expletives, according to Democrats familiar with the session.

The blowup highlights a long-standing tension that has pitted Democratic congressional leaders, who are focused on their best opportunities for electoral gains this fall, against Dean and many state party chairmen, who believe that the party needs to be rebuilt from the ground up -- even in states that have traditionally been Republican strongholds.

Democrats Are Fractured Over Strategy, Funds (Washington Post, May 11, 2006)

From the perspective of this lifelong Republican, the GOP is indeed in desperate trouble; the only thing that can possibly save it at this point is the fecklessness of the opposition.