Overworked, overtired, underpaid, undertrained and inexperienced

You will hear all kinds of spin and posterior-covering as the NTSB continues its hearings, but here it is in black and white for you: the flight crew was overworked, overtired, underpaid, undertrained and inexperienced. Period.

Some rules were broken. Before the flight Captain Marvin Renslow slept in the crew room at Newark after commuting from Tampa. First Officer Rebecca Shaw flew through the night from her home in Seattle and was up all day before signing in for her final trip.

And the crew did not maintain a “sterile cockpit” (meaning no chit-chat) as they descended below 10,000 feet.

Otherwise, they - and the airline - apparently met the minimum FAA requirements.

But those minimums still allowed:

• A captain to flunk no less than five flight exams and still hold the “left seat”.
• Those long commutes between a pilot’s home and base.
• The airline to pay pilots paltry wages.
• Only 8 hours of rest time (from wheel-stop to sign-in for next flight).

Reading the transcript of the CVR is a gut-wrenching experience for me. I can only imagine what it must be like for someone who lost a loved one that February night.

Miles O'Brien: From Sully... to Sullied (TrueSlant)

(via James Fallows)

Influenza 2.0

I'm watching these Twitter hashtags:

• #swineflu
• #h1n1

and keeping a weather eye on the consolidated reporting at HealthMap.org.

Wikipedia's "breaking news" article on the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak is fantastic.

He could tell you what your parents were thinking!

Bunny Smedley, writing at Fugitive Ink, on John Updike:

For me, however, Updike’s passing speeds the end of an era — not my own era, but that of my parents, born 1925 and 1930 respectively, and their contemporaries. Probably, I read more Updike before I turned 18 than I ever have thereafter. The point about Updike, for a bookish child growing up in the South in the 1970s, was that his writing had the reputation of being dangerously, enticingly risqué. He used swear-words (is there anyone alive who’ll believe that the first time I ever encountered the word ‘fuck’ was while taking surreptitious peeps, aged 9 or so, at Erica Jong’s Fear of Flying?), he wrote about sex, his books were full of adultery and divorce and self-doubt. His subject, in other words, was adults and what they did.

And this, more than anything else, was what was both dangerous and enticing in his work. Truly, Updike’s prose (I’m thinking here of the Rabbit books, Couples and also the short stories then available in book form) functioned as the lexicon that rendered a succession of otherwise unintelligible, mysterious events taking place around me all at least a little bit comprehensible. Apparently one can buy, these days, books that purport to tell you what your cat is thinking. Updike, even more miraculously, could tell you what your parents were thinking!

A few thoughts about John Updike (Fugitive Ink, 28 Jan 2009)

Go and read the whole thing.

And: Yes.

As I read Bunny's remembrance of Mr. Updike, the thought occurred to me: one of the reasons that so many Gen X "serious" fiction writers held writers of Mr. Updike's generation in more-or-less veiled contempt might have been that, as the literary avatars of suburban adultery, Updike and his contemporaries were chronicling (if not precisely celebrating) the kind of parental behavior that was causing them direct suffering as children.

Rabbit, R.I.P.

John Updike died today.

A few (not many) of the self-styled literary types I met in New York were kinda snooty about him. 

I loved him and read his books with pleasure, and I think that people who snub him as "middlebrow" are full of shit.

He was the poet and bard of suburbia, which badly needs poetry and lyric ballads.

His commercial success was one of the exceptions proving the "rule" that if lots and lots of people like [some_form_of_artistic_expression] it tends to be some form of debased crap.

Rest in peace, Mr. Updike.

Meet the BarackBerry

Obama to get spy-proof smartphone (CNN):

Self-confessed BlackBerry addict Barack Obama may not have to kick the thumbing habit after all, despite the concerns of a notoriously technophobic White House.

[...]

...[A]ccording to reports Thursday, Obama could now be in line to receive a spy-proof alternative to his favorite toy.

Writing on his blog for the Atlantic magazine, Marc Ambinder reports that the National Security Agency has approved a $3,350 smartphone -- inevitably dubbed the "BarackBerry" -- for Obama's use.

The exclusive Sectera Edge, made by General Dynamics, is reportedly capable of encrypting top secret voice conversations and handling classified documents.

I know just how he feels. I've been using smartphones for a few years now - first Blackberries, now an iPhone - and I'd put up a hell of a fight if you tried to take mine away too.

One problem, though - this looks like it's a Windows Mobile device:



(The little LCD display at the bottom exhorts "Think OPSEC!")

Related:

• Obama will get his BlackBerry (Marc Ambinder)
• Sectera Edge product page @ General Dynamics

Sully's LinkedIn page

No, not that Sully.

Captain C.B. "Sully" Sullenberger, President & CEO at Safety Reliability Methods:

President & CEO

Safety Reliability Methods, Inc.

(Privately Held; Airlines/Aviation industry)

January 2007 — Present (2 years 1 month)

Providing technical expertise and strategic vision and direction to improve safety and reliability in a variety of high risk industries.

Captain

USAirways

(Public Company; 10,001 or more employees; LCC; Airlines/Aviation industry)

February 1980 — Present (29 years)

Captain for major U. S. passenger airline, serving North America, Europe, Latin America, Caribbean and Hawaii with large jet equipment. Responsible for all aspects of safety and security pertaining to flight, including planning, preparation and aircraft servicing. Leader of crew and responsible for passengers and aircraft. Involved in development and implementation of the first Crew Resource Management (CRM) training course used at the airline. As a Check Airman, was responsible for the training and supervision of other airline pilots transitioning to another aircraft type or upgrading to Captain. Served as an Air Line Pilots Association Local Air Safety Chairman and Accident Investigator and national technical committee member.

Fighter Pilot/Captain

United States Air Force

(Government Agency; 10,001 or more employees; Military industry)

June 1973 — February 1980 (6 years 9 months)

USAF officer and fighter pilot on F-4 aircraft. Experience in Europe, Asia and at Nellis AFB, Nevada, where I served as Blue Force Mission Commander in Red Flag joint exercises. Was a member of a USAF aircraft accident investigation board. Served as a flight training officer and unit deployment and war plans officer. Commended for writing wing after action report.

Related:

• Safety Reliability Methods, Inc: About Us
• Fans of Captain C.B. "Sully" Sullenberger @ Facebook.com

Sometimes there IS a glider pilot in the house when you need one

I got a lot of calls, texts, and emails from friends and even some family members yesterday who know that I travel back and forth to North Carolina often, and were worried that I might have been on the US Airways plane that was en route to Charlotte but had to ditch in the Hudson River shortly after takeoff.  How lucky were those passengers that the captain at the controls of the Airbus was, among other things, a certified glider pilot instructor?  I mean, talk about being in the right place at the right time... he, and the flight crew, are absolute heroes.

Y'all are lovely folks; thank you for your concern.  For the record, we travel between NYC-area airports (LGA, JFK, EWR) and RDU typically on American, Continental or JetBlue.

We are all fine, except for everyday annoyances; a localized (area of a couple of blocks) broadband outage last night rendered us temporarily Amish, at least Internet-wise; all I had for connectivity was the iPhone. 

And this morning, we woke up to a plumbing leak through the ceiling - apparently a pipe burst in the apartment directly above us.

Just minor annoyances in the grand scheme of things - nothing, compared to going for a brief swim in the Hudson when it's 11 degrees outside.

Windows 7...

...is a partially decrufted Vista, based on a couple hours of playing around with it.

Don't bother downloading the public beta, unless you're a completist and/or a masochist. Clearly, I'm a bit of both.

Generous to a fault, with other people's money

Arthur Brooks, the author of a book on donors to charity, “Who Really Cares,” cites data that households headed by conservatives give 30 percent more to charity than households headed by liberals. A study by Google found an even greater disproportion: average annual contributions reported by conservatives were almost double those of liberals.

[...]

“When I started doing research on charity,” Mr. Brooks wrote, “I expected to find that political liberals — who, I believed, genuinely cared more about others than conservatives did — would turn out to be the most privately charitable people. So when my early findings led me to the opposite conclusion, I assumed I had made some sort of technical error. I re-ran analyses. I got new data. Nothing worked. In the end, I had no option but to change my views.”

Bleeding Heart Tightwads, Nicholas Kristof, New York Times - 21 Dec 2008

Huh.

This makes a lot more sense, a little further into the column, when the following information is disclosed:

• The percentage of philanthropy among regular churchgoers is about the same across both liberal and conservative groups, and significantly higher than average.
• And donations to one's own church were counted as private charity.

The determining factor here is membership in a community of faith and financial support of same, not "conservative" or "liberal" beliefs per se. That there are more belonging/donating believers among conservatives than liberals is not a terribly surprising thing.

Google Earth doesn't kill people...

Of course the terrorists used Google Earth. They also used boats, and ate at restaurants. Don't even get me started about the fact that they breathed air and drank water.

[...]

...[This is] true for all aspects of human infrastructure. Yes, the bad guys use it: bank robbers use cars to get away, drug smugglers use radios to communicate, child pornographers use e-mail. But the good guys use it, too, and the good uses far outweigh the bad uses.

Bruce Schneier: Mumbai terrorists used Google Earth, boats, food (8 Dec 2008)

That's what I pay him for

One man's military-industrial complex:

In the spring of 2007 a tiny military contractor with a slender track record went shopping for a precious Beltway commodity.

The company, Defense Solutions, sought the services of a retired general with national stature, someone who could open doors at the highest levels of government and help it win a huge prize: the right to supply Iraq with thousands of armored vehicles.

Access like this does not come cheap, but it was an opportunity potentially worth billions in sales, and Defense Solutions soon found its man. The company signed Barry McCaffrey, a retired four-star army general and military analyst for NBC News, to a consulting contract starting June 15, 2007.

Four days later the general swung into action. He sent a personal note and 15-page briefing packet to David Petraeus, the commanding general in Iraq, strongly recommending Defense Solutions and its offer to supply Iraq with 5,000 armored vehicles from Eastern Europe. "No other proposal is quicker, less costly, or more certain to succeed," he said.

Thus, within days of hiring McCaffrey, the Defense Solutions sales pitch was in the hands of the American commander with the greatest influence over Iraq's expanding military.

"That's what I pay him for," Timothy Ringgold, chief executive of Defense Solutions, said in an interview.

One man's military-industrial complex (International Herald Tribune, 30 November 2008)

Pakistan will find itself in a nutcracker

I hope they're wrong, but I think they're right:

We will begin by assuming that the attackers are Islamist militant groups operating in India, possibly with some level of outside support from Pakistan. We can also see quite clearly that this was a carefully planned, well-executed attack.

Given this, the Indian government has two choices. First, it can simply say that the perpetrators are a domestic group. In that case, it will be held accountable for a failure of enormous proportions in security and law enforcement. It will be charged with being unable to protect the public. On the other hand, it can link the attack to an outside power: Pakistan. In that case it can hold a nation-state responsible for the attack, and can use the crisis atmosphere to strengthen the government’s internal position by invoking nationalism. Politically this is a much preferable outcome for the Indian government, and so it is the most likely course of action. This is not to say that there are no outside powers involved — simply that, regardless of the ground truth, the Indian government will claim there were.

That, in turn, will plunge India and Pakistan into the worst crisis they have had since 2002. If the Pakistanis are understood to be responsible for the attack, then the Indians must hold them responsible, and that means they will have to take action in retaliation — otherwise, the Indian government’s domestic credibility will plunge. The shape of the crisis, then, will consist of demands that the Pakistanis take immediate steps to suppress Islamist radicals across the board, but particularly in Kashmir. New Delhi will demand that this action be immediate and public. This demand will come parallel to U.S. demands for the same actions, and threats by incoming U.S. President Barack Obama to force greater cooperation from Pakistan.

If that happens, Pakistan will find itself in a nutcracker. On the one side, the Indians will be threatening action — deliberately vague but menacing — along with the Americans. This will be even more intense if it turns out, as currently seems likely, that Americans and Europeans were being held hostage (or worse) in the two hotels that were attacked. If the attacks are traced to Pakistan, American demands will escalate well in advance of inauguration day.

Red Alert: Possible geopolitical consequences of the Mumbai Attacks -- Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (stratfor.com)

Also, monkeys might fly out of my butt

Bruce Schneier is not impressed with recent warnings about attacks on the NYC transit system:

I have no specific details, but I want to warn everybody today that fiery rain might fall from the sky. Terrorists may have discussed this sort of tactic, and while there is no evidence yet that it's in the process of being carried out, I want to be extra-cautious this holiday season. Ho ho ho.

Related: "Feds warn of terror plotting against NYC subways" (Associated Press, 26 Nov 2008)

Wikipedia for breaking news

The footnotes and references are a treasure trove.

November 20o8 Mumbai attack (Wikipedia)

Hat tip: Sepia Mutiny, where I also found this Google Map showing all of the different attack locations.

Idiom Police, sir. I'm going to have to place you under arrest.

[Jeff Ruch, executive director of Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility] said that if Obama cuts Pentagon spending, he will not have to work hard to help the other six agencies [Labor, Housing and Urban Development, veterans Affairs, TSA, EPA and the Social Security Administration in addition to Defense].

"These domestic discretionary programs are peanuts in the grand scale of things," Ruch said. "A small diversion from the Iraq conflict, if they were put into Interior, EPA or NASA, those agencies would be in their salad days. The National Park Service is laboring under a [maintenance] backlog that would be cured by a month and a half of Iraq expenditures."

Source: Obama Wrote Federal Staffers About His Goals (Washington Post, 17 November 2008)

Leaving aside the very interesting questions of budget allocation between and among various bits of the Federal government: with increased funding, the agencies would be in their "salad days"?

No, no... or at least, let's hope not.

"Salad days" is Shakespearean in its elegant origins, and refers to a time when one is "green in judgment" -- in other words, youthful, inexperienced, callow, enthusiastic:

CLEOPATRA: My salad days,
When I was green in judgment: cold in blood,
To say as I said then! But, come, away;
Get me ink and paper:
He shall have every day a several greeting,
Or I'll unpeople Egypt.
(Anthony and Cleopatra - Act I, Scene V)

With enough diverted Federal funding, the career employees of the various Federal agencies would be in fat city, in high cotton, aboard the gravy train, etc.

But not, please, in their salad days.

Socialism? You're soaking in it...

Conservatism's current intellectual chaos reverberated in the Republican ticket's end-of-campaign crescendo of surreal warnings that big government -- verily, "socialism" -- would impend were Democrats elected. John McCain and Sarah Palin experienced this epiphany when Barack Obama told a Toledo plumber that he would "spread the wealth around."

America can't have that, exclaimed the Republican ticket while Republicans -- whose prescription drug entitlement is the largest expansion of the welfare state since President Lyndon Johnson's Great Society gave birth to Medicare in 1965; and a majority of whom in Congress supported a lavish farm bill at a time of record profits for the less than 2 percent of the American people-cum-corporations who farm -- and their administration were partially nationalizing the banking system, putting Detroit on the dole and looking around to see if some bit of what is smilingly called "the private sector" has been inadvertently left off the ever-expanding list of entities eligible for a bailout from the $1 trillion or so that is to be "spread around."

The seepage of government into everywhere is, we are assured, to be temporary and nonpolitical. Well.

"Socialism"? It's already here - George F. Will, Washington Post, 15 November 2008

How convenient!

So Carrie and I were discussing, just the other day, how we might transform ourselves into a bank holding company, in order to benefit from the TARP money that the US government is throwing around.

She and I are absolutely prepared to make reckless, ill-considered loans using other peoples' money to any applicant with a pulse, so we've got all the intellectual and moral firepower needed to operate as a modern banking institution, clearly.

Chow Bella is already very good at begging for treats, so we've got our government liaison right there.

But how to get our application for aid in front of the right people? Anyone have Neal Kashkari's cell phone number?

Oh, wait -- we can just download this form and fill it out (PDF link to ustreas.gov website).

Be right with you.

Thank you, I'll be here all week, be sure to tip your waitress

So, I was speaking to an Iranian friend about what a mind-bending thing it must be for people in the Middle East to see Americans, seven years after 9/11, electing someone named Barack Hussein Obama as president. America is surely the only nation that could — in the same decade — go to war against a president named Hussein (Saddam of Iraq), threaten to use force against a country whose most revered religious martyr is named Hussein (Iran) and then elect its own president who’s middle-named Hussein.

Is this a great country or what?

Tom Friedman: "Show Me the Money," New York Times, 9 November 2008

...designed for collaborative, practical, self-empowered survival

Mission Statement: To increase the Darwinian fitness of the world's poorest children by providing each child with a rugged, low-cost, low-energy, internet-enabled velociraptor with content designed for collaborative, practical, self-empowered survival.

...from the One Velociraptor Per Child (OVPC) Initiative's web site

Oh, man, big chunks of this are just irresistible to quote. I'll stop after this one, or we'll be here all day:

The XD is trained using free and open-source techniques. Our commitment to freedom gives children the opportunity to interact [with] their velociraptors on their own terms. While we do not expect every child to become a trainer, we do not want any ceiling imposed on those children who choose to retrain their dinosaurs. We are using openly documented psychological techniques for much the same reason: transparency is empowering. The children - and their elders - will have the freedom to reshape, reinvent, and reapply their behavioral conditioning skills.

A tip of the enrevanche chapeau to Chap.

Related:

• One Laptop Per Child
• Michael Crichton, dead at 66 (Los Angeles Times, 5 Nov 2008)

OK, this was funny

McCain brought the funny last night on SNL.

• On a purely objective basis, Johnny Mac is funnier than Obama. (Obama is wittier, which is different.)
• Cindy McCain is a hell of a good sport.
• Tina Fey must be very relieved at the prospect of going back to just writing for and appearing in 30 Rock after 4 November.

A willingness to engage in self-deprecating humor is a very becoming trait in a public figure. With a few significant exceptions, conservatives seem to be better at that than liberals.

I wonder why? Not a rhetorical question, I genuinely do.

Nixon, who nobody thinks of as funny, appeared on Laugh-In, which I hope I won't insult by describing it as the Saturday Night Live of its day; LBJ, a scabrously funny man in private (LBJ on lobbyists: "...if you can't eat their steak, drink their whiskey, [enjoy carnal knowledge of] their women and vote against 'em the next morning, you have no business in this business") wouldn't have done it in a million years.